Monday, July 16, 2012
TAXMAGEDDON, PART 1
Thursday, July 12, 2012
Good new on UNEMPLOYMENT?? HARDLY!
By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER, AP Economics Writer – 2 hours ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — At first, it seemed like cause to cheer: The number of people who sought unemployment benefits last week tumbled to a four-year low, the Labor Department said Thursday.
Did that mean the job market is surging back to health? Is the unemployment rate about to sink?
Not necessarily. Turns out, last week's drop in unemployment applications reflected mainly a strengthening auto industry — and the Labor Department's imperfect means of calculating unemployment applications. Economists who analyze the job market cautioned against reading too much into Thursday's data.
The problem involves the department's effort to account for seasonal factors in its calculations. It adjusts the data to factor in such annual trends as holiday hiring by retailers and summer layoffs by automakers. Without such adjustments, these seasonal events would distort the health of the job market.
Early in the year, the department makes its seasonal adjustments for each month. To do so, it crunches historical data to estimate how temporary trends will likely affect the coming year's data.
It doesn't always work as planned.
Often, an unexpected event will throw off the seasonal adjustments. And economists and investors who try to interpret what the data signify are left scratching their heads.
This spring, for example, auto companies decided to close fewer factories than they normally do in summer. They kept those plants open to keep up with rising demand for cars. Normally, a summer lull in production prompts many temporary plant closings and layoffs.
Ford Motor Co. said in May that it would reduce its usual two-week closing to only one week. And Chrysler announced in spring that it was canceling its normal two-week shutdowns at three factories.
The Labor Department's seasonal adjustments had anticipated more temporary auto layoffs than occurred. As a result, the department reported Thursday that applications for unemployment benefits plunged 26,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 350,000. (Excluding the seasonal adjustment, applications rose 70,000.)
The distortion of the seasonal adjustments is likely to ease by early next month. But it means that one of the most closely watched barometers of the job market may not provide an accurate reading for perhaps three more weeks.
Some economists complain that the Labor Department's seasonal adjustments are always outdated by the time the summer auto-plant shutdowns are announced.
"I find this frustrating every July when we get to the auto shutdowns," said Carl Riccadonna, an economist at Deutsche Bank. "In a soft patch, the most important thing to watch is the job market, and the best labor market indicator is jobless claims, and every July we basically have to throw them out."
The Labor Department did not respond to requests for comment.
The department's Employment and Training Administration is in charge of the seasonal adjustments to the data on unemployment applications. It decides in January or February how to adjust each week's figures. And in March, it publishes its seasonal calculations for the year ahead.
Other Labor Department agencies calculate their seasonal adjustments each month, rather than far in advance. An example is the department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, which issues the monthly employment report. But none of the agencies try to predict future actions, such as the likelihood that auto companies will close fewer factors in summer.
To do so, the department would have to estimate how many workers would be affected at the auto companies, their suppliers — "down to the company that's making sandwiches in the cafeteria," Riccadonna said. "Logistically, it's just too complicated."
Most economists say the unemployment benefits applications report won't provide an accurate picture of the job market until at least early August.
"The drop in claims would be nice if it were true," Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, wrote in a note to clients.
Copyright © 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
Related articles
- US jobless claims plunge
Independent Online - 7 hours ago - Ahead of the Bell: US unemployment benefits
CBS News - 11 hours ago - Seasonal adjustments to economic data can mislead
Tuscaloosa News (subscription) - 2 hours ago - More coverage (1) »
Friday, October 1, 2010
Do We Overuse the word BEAUTIFUL???
Now, like every woman in the world, I love for someone to tell me I look beautiful or I am beautiful. If people say they don't like it, then they are BIG FAT LIARS!! All women, and most men, put great importance on physical appearance. As I've gotten older, I've realized I would rather have someone tell me I have a beautiful spirit, or heart, or nature. With that being said, a nice compliment is still a treasure.
I took my dogs for a walk early this morning along the bayou by my home. I pulled my hair back in a pony tail, threw on my shorts, t-shirt and tennis shoes and headed out. I jogged for 15 minutes or so and worked up quite a sweat. I then proceeded to walk the rest of the time, my hair matted, perspiration literally dripping from my arms and legs. I took my arm and wiped my face with the sleeve of my now stinky t-shirt. I had that nice runners high, my endorphins elevated and a smile on my face. I was just passing a man for the 3rd time. He was middle-aged, somewhat attractive, I guess, and had a nice physique. (in full disclosure to my husband, I didn't even notice ANY of that until the 3rd pass, or maybe the 2nd) and he gave me a dazzling smile and asked how I was doing. In my polite, southern way, I replied I was "great" and "have a nice day."
Now, if you know me at all, you know paranoia runs in abundance in my family. I think this robust exchange and smile from the stranger made me a little weary. My mom and nanny's words of caution replayed in my head and I turned around just to make sure he wasn't following me. It might be early in the morning, but psychos don't have time frames. Maybe he was stalking me and I'd not being paying attention. As I turned around, he gave me another smile and had turned around to approach me. My heart started beating out of my chest!
I formulated a plan. I was a pretty fast runner, but didn't want to leave my dogs behind. The closest neighborhood would take me a few minutes to reach. I could scream, but that would probably fall on deaf ears. I touched my cellphone and dialed 911. I would press it if I felt I needed to, and would scream so they would know I was in danger. Not the best plan, but it would have to suffice. They could track my dead body to the spot near the woods.
I did not slow down, and in fact sped up as I made my way back toward the neighborhood. The man fell in step with me and my dogs. They didn't care either. If anything, they would only lick him to death if something happened. To them, there are no strangers. My heart was beating so loudly I could hear it and realized I was holding my breath. I was near panic. Again, the stranger smiled. He said "hi, I'm Mike and I noticed you earlier. I am going to get right to the point. I am a 50 year old, divorced father of 3 grown kids and I think you are beautiful. I just wanted to see if you are married, and if not, could I meet you for dinner sometime?"
I stopped dead in my tracks. He stopped as well. I must have looked stunned because he repeated what he'd just said. I struggled to reset my internal compass. I realized I really wasn't in any danger. He was merely a lonely jogger on a quest to find his soul mate. We had reached the gate by the neighborhood and I felt safer. I let out a long sigh and turned to the man. I thanked him for his compliment, but told him I was happily married but good luck in his search. He politely nodded his head and turned back toward the path. My knees buckled and I walked slowly back home.
Now, I reflected on his comments. He told me I was "beautiful." REALLY? I think it might have been me at my very worst point beauty-wise in the last few days. He didn't know me; he was simply looking at me, physically, and decided to use the word beautiful when he spoke with me. It struck me then and there how much we abuse this word. It is a word of wonder and is the pinnacle of compliments. I certainly didn't qualify in any way, shape, or form for this level of praise. I promised then and there that I wouldn't abuse this word any more. Babies are beautiful; sunsets are beautiful; kind words and love from your family are beautiful. I did not qualify this morning. I will monitor my use of this and other similar words that are over-used and abused. Of course, after my heard stopped beating out of my chest and I settled down, I smiled. A strange man had stopped me and told me I was beautiful.
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
THE BOOK IS HERE! "You Can't Make This Stuff Up"
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Life is Hard
"Life is Hard. After all, it kills you."
You gotta love brutal honesty........
But, on a more serious note, I love Thomas Jefferson's insights as well. Here's my Conviction of conscience for the weekend -
All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent.
Thomas Jefferson
Friday, September 18, 2009
Quotes to live by #1
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FAVORITE QUOTE OF THE DAY: Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it.
Mark Twain
That's a GOOD quote. The following are not so lucky.....dumber than a box of rocks, one brick shy of a load, not playing with a full deck, someone's there, but nobody's home, - you get the gist of where I'm going with this. I MEAN, PLEASE!!! WE CAN'T ALL BE ROCKET SCIENTISTS!! Sorry Dan Quayle. You really do seem like a nice guy!
Quaylisms: I have made good judgements in the past. I have made good judgements in the future. Dan Quayle
I love California, I practically grew up in Phoenix. Dan Quayle
This President is going to lead us out of this recovery. Dan Quayle
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Democracy's the worst form of government except for all the others.
Winston Churchill
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My "mini" salute to the great orator Ronald Reagan.... immediately after being shot during the attempted assassination, wheeled into the emergency room, he looked around and asked the doctors, "I do hope you are all Republicans?" As he drifted off.....he heard, "For you Mr. President, today we are all Republicans!" Nancy in the background......"oh, Ronnie, why couldn't you have just ducked?"
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If we ever forget that we are One Nation Under God, then we will be a nation gone under!
But my most favorite quote from President Reagan:
The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help. Ronald Reagan
AMEN. ENOUGH SAID.
Happy Dreams..

